Market reaction
This section looks at the market reaction to peaking incumbent demand
A classic example of market anticipation is the coal sector. Global coal stocks peaked in 2011 two years before peak global coal demand; by the time global coal demand peaked in 2013, stocks were already down by over 60%; seven years after that the US coal index had fallen by over 99% and was discontinued.
How markets react to peaks
Chart source: Bloomberg
Key Reports
Spiralling Disruption: The feedback loops of the energy transition
Peak demand for fossil fuels kicks off virtuous and vicious feedback loops, which hasten change. We set out the seven areas of feedback loops: costs, technology, expectations, finance, society, politics and geopolitics.
The energy transition and financial markets
A presentation to SPARK. The implication of the energy transition for financial markets.
Lessons from European electricity for global oil & gas
One of the first sectors to be disrupted by the energy transition was European electricity after 2008. We set out the story of that disruption and deduce some lessons for the oil and gas sector.
Marginal change moves markets
It is marginal change that moves markets. Investors and incumbents cannot rely upon size but must think about growth. The historical record is replete with examples of incumbents disrupted at their moment of greatest size.
*Trusted Sources now trades as TS Lombard.