Publications
The Battery Mineral Loop
Recycling and technology improvements mean that we have enough minerals to drive the energy transition. We will see peak demand for virgin material in the early 2030s.
The Incredible Inefficiency of the Fossil Energy System
The fossil fuel system wastes two thirds of primary energy to produce useful energy. That makes it much easier to disrupt.
X-Change: The Race to the Top
There is a race to lead the energy transition between China, Europe and the US. Whilst all compete in renewables, China is leading in manufacturing and electrification.
X-Change: Batteries
Battery demand is growing exponentially, driving the energy transition.
X-Change: Cars
EV demand is growing exponentially and will dominate car sales by the end of the decade.
X-Change: Electricity
Solar and wind supply is growing up S-curves, already supplies 90% of new capacity and will start to push fossil fuels out of the electricity system by the end of the decade.
The Renewable Revolution: It’s exponential, global, and this decade
Our key 2023 presentation on renewables as the driver of the energy transition.
A Theory of Rapid Transition: How S-Curves Work and What We Can Do to Accelerate Them
How S-curves work to drive technology change.
Peaking: A Theory of Rapid Transition
Why rapid growth of the new leads to peaks of the old.
Spiralling Disruption: The feedback loops of the energy transition
Once you reach peak demand, so feedback loops speed up change.
Reach for the Sun: The emerging market electricity leapfrog
Emerging markets are leapfrogging direct to renewables.
The Sky’s the Limit: Solar and wind energy potential is 100 times as much as global energy demand
Renewable potential is 100x larger than fossil fuel extraction.
Nothing to lose but your chains: The emerging market transport leapfrog
Emerging markets can avoid fossil fuel dependency by embracing EV.
Decline and Fall: The Size & Vulnerability of the Fossil Fuel System
The fossil fuel system is huge and faces decline and fall as growth dries up.
The A-Z of the Energy Transition: Knowns and Unknowns
Technology clarity and political uncertainty in the energy transition.
