Publications
Energy after Fire
The fossil fuel system wastes two thirds of its primary energy, mostly in turning heat into work. We don't have to do that any more.
The Battery Mineral Loop
Recycling and technology improvements mean that we have enough minerals to drive the energy transition. We will see peak demand for virgin material in the early 2030s.
The Cleantech Revolution
Our key 2024 presentation on the energy transition. Clean energy technologies enjoy exponential growth which will continue and drive the energy transition.
The Incredible Inefficiency of the Fossil Energy System
The fossil fuel system wastes two thirds of primary energy to produce useful energy. That makes it much easier to disrupt.
The Rise of Batteries in Six Charts and Not Too Many Numbers
A summary of the growth of batteries and their impact on the energy transition.
The Great Reallocation
There is plenty of capital available to finance the energy transition. The key is to shift capex from fossil fuels to renewables, in a great reallocation.
X-Change: Batteries
Battery demand is growing exponentially, driving the energy transition.
The Eight Deadly Sins of Analyzing the Energy Transition
There are 8 profound weaknesses in the way that people model the energy transition. From linear thinking to a focus on endgame issues rather than change today.
Reality Check: The IEA Busts 10 Myths about the Energy Transition
The IEA busts 10 more myths about the energy transition.
X-Change: Cars
EV demand is growing exponentially and will dominate car sales by the end of the decade.
X-Change: Electricity
Solar and wind supply is growing up S-curves, already supplies 90% of new capacity and will start to push fossil fuels out of the electricity system by the end of the decade.
The Renewable Revolution: It’s exponential, global, and this decade
Our key 2023 presentation on renewables as the driver of the energy transition.
The Energy Transition in Five Charts and Not Too Many Numbers
A summary of the key drivers of the energy transition.
Peak Fossil Fuel Demand for Electricity
How the rise of solar and wind will drive peak fossil fuel demand for electricity.
Peaking: Why Fossil Fuel Demand Peaked in 2019
Why the rise of cleantech will drive peak fossil fuel demand.
The IEA Confirms that Fossil Fuel Demand Is Peaking
The IEA confirms peaking fossil fuel demand.
A Theory of Rapid Transition: How S-Curves Work and What We Can Do to Accelerate Them
How S-curves work to drive technology change.
Peaking: A Theory of Rapid Transition
Why rapid growth of the new leads to peaks of the old.